Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Advice to Obama: Swallow Your Pride; Pick Hillary

Well my predictions of yesterday (see previous blog entry below) have come true faster than I thought.

Today's RCP average of polls show Obama leading McCain by only 1.2 % (down from 3.6% yesterday.) More importantly he is now trailing in the sing state of Indiana - where he had a slight lead. That puts him below the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, for the first time since June 17th - just after Hillary "conceded" defeat. According the RCP average of polls Obama now has 264 Electoral Votes to McCain's 274. According to the most recent polls (a leading indicator, as i pointed out yesterday) Obama has only 223 EVs.

Joe Biden, and the other "short list" contenders for Obama's VP pick do not have the clout to turn this around. Only Hillary has the profile and credibility with a significant enough segment of the public to give Obama the boost of 4-5% points he needs to win in November. The public has nagging doubts about Obama, that only come to the fore as times become more "troubled". Many of these doubts where raised by Hillary. Only Hillary on the ticket can convince the American people that her doubts have been assuaged.

Picking Hillary has many down sides - mostly after the election. But picking Hillary will show that Obama has the smarts to change course quickly as events demand, and the focus and resolve to make hard but necessary choices. Only Hillary will virtually guarantee a win in November. Anything else is a losing strategy.


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