Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Thoughts on Super Tuesday

1. American politics are still mired in race and gender. Identity politics still trumps policy. Obama gets 90% of the black vote in Georgia. Hilary get 60% of the female vote in California. She also gets 68% of the Latino vote and 63% of the Asian vote. (Minorities typically resent blacks for hogging all the minority "victim status" and government "goodies".)

2. White men (at least Democratic and Independent white men) are supporting Obama. Either they are the only group in America to rise above identity politics, or they simply have a harder time imagining a woman as an effective president than a black man. In other words, for white men, gender is a bigger negative than race.

3. Six percent of voters for Obama admitted that gender was a factor in their voting. (The real number is likely double that. People don't like to admit their prejudices.) Nine percent of Hilary voters admitted that race was a factor in their voting decision. (Again the real number is likely double.) These numbers where among Democratic voters. They are likely even higher among the general population. This could bode ill for the Democrats in the November general election. McCain clearly has some advantages no one wants to talk about.

4. Polls show that McCain has a slight advantage over Hilary, but that Obama has a slight advantage over McCain.

5. The fact that McCain has a good chance of winning the November general election, despite his support for expanding an unpopular war, and his general lack of interest in the economy just as America is slipping into a major economic funk, only underscores how shallow and stupid American politics has become. Its 90% image and personality. McCain is likeable - and certainly more straightforward and honest than your typical politician - but he is wrong, and out of sync with the popular view, on very many issues.

6. I have no idea who I am rooting for. I'm still looking for an honest and experienced black woman war hero, who looks to the future and exudes hope.


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