Monday, September 08, 2008

McCain Out-Bounces Obama


I reported last week that Obama received a 5% point bounce from the Democratic Convention.

Well the Republican convention took all that back, and then some. As of September 2, Obama lead McCain by 6 points in the RCP average of polls. Today, 6 days later, McCain leads Obama by 2.1 points. Thats an 8.1% bounce within less than a week.

Either Palin is Superwoman, the Republicans are very effective convetioneers, Obama is a weak campaigner, the American people - or at least the undecides among them - are incredibly fickle, or all of the above are true. (I vote for the latter.)

The chart above is from my own tracking of the poll averages. Individual polls, of course, vary from the average - and the very latest one, which may be a leading indicator, shows McCain ahead by 10 points!

I would say that the Democrats have a lot to be worried about - and the rest of the world has a lot to fear.
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Postscript: Since I posted the above - about 4 hours ago, two new polls have been published. Both are bad news for Obama. The RCP average of polls now has McCain leading by 3.4% (which makes his 6 day bounce close to 10%), and while Obama is still leading in Michigan his lead has dropped by 1% since the previous polls.

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