Sunday, March 04, 2012

Why There Will Be No War With Iran This Spring (unless ...)


Despite all the sabre rattling I don't believe there will be a war with Iran in the next 3-4 months (beyond that even fools shouldn't prophecy.) My reasons:


2) President Obama will not instigate an attack and will not participate in a joint attack with Israel, and will not guarantee to Netanyahu that he will come to Israel's aid after a unilateral Israeli attack. Obama believes that sanctions may yet work, and under no circumstances will start a war before the U.S. elections.

3) An Israeli attack can only delay - not stop - Iran's nuclear program. Moreover it will guarantee that Iran will definitely go for nuclear weapons and missiles no matter what - something that is still in doubt today. Netanyahu knows this.

4) An Israeli attack will cause thousands of Hezbollah rockets to rain down on Israeli cities. Haifa is well within range. Tel-Aviv is probably too. Israel would ultimately win such a war, and inflict terrible damage on Lebanon. Israeli intelligence estimates however predict that such an attack would cause many hundreds of Israeli civilian casualties and billions of dollars of economic damage. Netanyahu knows this too.

5) A unilateral Israeli attack would severely disrupt world oil supplies and therefore the very fragile world economy. This would cost Israel dearly in international support. It would also completely alienate the U.S. administration and its professional defence and diplomatic corps: even if they might mute this somewhat in public, these people have long memories. If the economic disruption was sever enough, it might even cost Israel its single greatest strategic asset: the support of the American people, and Israel's "lock" on Congress. Netanyahu knows this too.,

So unless Israel is being run by a megalomaniacal, suicidal and/or apocalyptic leadership, there will be no attack on Iran in the next few months.

(But then again, unless Iran is being run by a megalomaniacal, suicidal and/or apocalyptic leadership, there is no chance of Iran instigating a nuclear attack on Israel. So why all the fuss?)

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