Can Obama Lose?

Do Obama fans need to worry?

The answer is yes; but just a bit.

Though it is still possible Obama could lose, you’re much better off being an Obama fan today than being a McCain. Right now, four days before the U.S. election, the polls show Obama up by 6% nationally – based on the RCP average of polls. Currently Obama has 353 electoral votes – again based on the RCP averages of individual state polls. If we use only the most recent polls (which may or may not indicate the beginning of a trend) Obama’s electoral votes rise to 392. (270 electoral votes are needed to win.) The only way McCain can win is by the “perfect” – from his point of view - confluence of a number of factors.

How could that happen?

Well one way is, that with four days to go, he continues to eat away at Obama’s lead. If you look at the chart above you can see that from October 26 to October 30, Obama’s lead in the projected national vote dropped from 8% to 5.9%. That’s a 2.1% drop in just 4 days! If McCain can do the same in the next 4 days, Obama’s lead would be only 3.9% on election day: close but no cigar.

But the margin of error in most national polls is 2.5 – 3.5%. So if McCain can continue his effective momentum of the most of past week; and if the polls are at their maximum error; and if all that error was in Obama’s favour, then McCain can achieve a tie – or close to it – in the national vote. (Technically he would still lose by 0.5% - but that is truly too close.) That’s a lot of IFs. What’s more, from yesterday – Oct 30 – to today – Oct 31 – Obama went up 0.1% in the polls. So it would appear that the momentum McCain generated earlier in the week, with his focus on taxes, has stalled: either just slowed a bit or he has milked that issue for all it was worth.

Another way Obama could lose is if all the "undecideds" break for McCain – rather than splitting more or less evenly, or just staying home 'cause they are too undecided to bother to vote.

In this scenario Obama loses all the races where he has less then 50% today. On the national level, as of today, the RCP average of polls shows Obama with 49.9% and McCain with 43.9% of decided voters. So, if ALL the undecided voters vote; and if ALL of them decide for McCain, then McCain wins the election by 50.1% to 49.9%! But that’s only in the overall popular vote. And as we learned in 2000, American elections are not won by the overall popular vote, but by the electoral college and in the state by state contests.

So how does this “undecideds to McCain” scenario play out on state by state level?

As we see in the chart above, as of Oct 31, Obama is leading in states with 353 electoral votes, based on RCP averages of polls. But if he has less than 50% of the vote in enough states with enough electoral votes, and if all the undecided vote, and they all vote for McCain, Obama would lose 84 electoral votes, and thus lose the election.

Is that the case? Here is a list of states where Obama is leading but where, as of today, he has less then 50% of the decided vote.

State EV Obama McCain
--------------- -- ----- -------
Florida 27 48.5 45
North Carolina 15 48.9 46.3
Ohio 20 49.2 43.4


So if all the undecides in those states break for McCain, he picks up 62 electoral votes; but Obama still wins the election: 291 electoral votes to 247.

But again, the state polls have a margin of error. So maybe 50% for Obama is not REALLY 50% fro Obama. To be completely comfortable, and totally immune to the “all undecideds vote McCain” scenario, Obama needs 53.5% in any given state. If we apply this threshold the following states now come into play.


State EV Obama McCain
--------------- -- ----- -------
Nevada 5 50.3 43.3
New Mexico 5 50.3 43
Colorado 9 50.8 44.3
Virginia 13 51 44.5
Pennsylvania 21 52.3 43
Iowa 7 52.5 41.5
New Hampshire 4 52.8 40.5
Wisconsin 10 53 41.3
Minnesota 10 53 40
Oregon 7 53 37.8

If McCain can pick off the closest 4 of these races, or if he can pick off Pennsylvania and one other, he will in fact win the election.

But that would require all the stars aligning just right. ALL (and we are talking 95% or more here) of the undecides would have to decide to vote and to vote for McCain, and the polls would have to wrong pretty much at the maximum end of their margin of error, and all of that error would have had to be in Obama’s favour.

Is there any other way Obama can lose? Yes: low turnout. All the polls are based on a model of likely voters. And all agree that first time voters are more heavily tilted to Obama. All have assumed some of these first time voters will vote (and in fact one of the major differences in the poll results is based on how many of these first time voters they assume will actually vote.) If first time voters significantly under perform the pollster’s assumptions, and if some of the other scenarios described above come just partly true, Obama could still lose. But most news stories indicate that new voters will out perform the pollster assumptions – and by a lot.

So any way you look at it, a McCain victory, while still possible, is a long shot.

If you are still worried (or God forbid – hopeful) than here are a few early signs you can look for on Nov 4th.

1. Voter turn-out. High turn-out works to Obama’s favour. Low turn-out should make Obama supporters start to worry a bit

2. Florida. Obama is currently leading in Florida by 48.5 to 45. That’s a 2.5% lead. If McCain wins this state, Obama fans should up their worry level to yellow: caution is called for.

3. Virginia. Obama is currently leading in Virginia 51 to 44.5. That’s a 5.5% lead. If Obama takes Virginia by anything less than 2.5% Obama fans should increase their worry level to yellow. If McCain wins Virginia, then Obama fans should start chewing their nails: we are into threat level orange!

4. Pennsylvania. Obama is currently leading by 8.5%. If McCain makes this close, go to code orange. If McCain pulls off an upset and wins Pennsylvania, go to threat level red! It will be along and nerve wracking night.

Myself? I don’t anticipate Obama losing. But that won’t stop me from following the results obsessively on election night, and worrying at the first sign of “trouble.” Obama might not be perfect (far from it in my opinion) but the election campaign has convinced me that a McCain victory would be pretty damn bad. If nothing else for what it says about Americans' judgment.

15 Minutes of Fame

Two weeks ago I wrote a letter to the Canadian Jewish News, and to my surprise they actually printed it!

You can see it at the CJN web site - as they edited it (scroll to the bottom of the page) - or you can read the original below. Though they retained the gist, they edited out the passion - IMO. But I am glad that they saw fit to allow a different voice to be heard on their pages.

We should be ashamed.

As Jews we should be ashamed of the IDF's new military doctrine, as explained in your front page article: "What are the IDF's plans for the next war?" (October 16).

It is clear from the article, that in the event of another war in Lebanon, the IDF plans to use massive and "disproportionate" force to destroy Lebanon's civilian "assets".

"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, causing immense damage and destruction." says the head of the IDFs Northern Command. The goal, he goes on to say, is to strike at Lebanon's "weak spots" and "efforts to hurt [the enemies missile] launch capability are secondary". In case the point is not clear, the plan is called "the Dhaliyah Doctine" after the Shiite neighbourhood of Beirut that the IDF effectively destroyed in the last Lebanon war. We therefore are no longer talking about "collateral damage", but a deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure

What ever happened to the IDF doctrine of "Purity of Arms" (taharat haneshek) whereby Israeli soldiers where explicitly forbidden to target civilians? More to the point, whatever happened to the Biblical injunction not to destroy the economic infrastructure (e.g. fruit trees) during war? To quote the Eitz Hayim Chumash (standard in the Conservative Movement) on this verse:

"We are not to be so carried away in times of war that we forget that
the war will be over one day, and people will have to live and feed
their families in the place where the battles are raging. Beyond that Maimonides writes: "Not only one who cuts down a fruit tree, but anyone who destroys household goods, … demolishes a building, stops up a spring, or ruins food deliberately, violates the prohibition of bal tashchit ."

How, in fact, is the IDF's new doctrine - of bringing the war to the
Beirut's civilians - different than the doctrine of the Palestinian
terrorists who wish to bring their war against the occupation to the streets of Tel Aviv?

Israel must hold itself to a higher standard than the terrorists. To
quote the Dry Bones cartoon that appears in the same Oct 16th issue of
the CJN, "On Simchat Torah we express our joy at having received the
burden of morality". That is something I would like to believe about
our Jewish People. In light of the IDFs new doctrine, however, that
appears as a bad joke.

I pray that the IDF will change these immoral plans, and I
urge all Jews to encourage it to do so.

Children of Abraham.

There is no Israel/Palestine conflict, because there are no Palestinians! Its all been a misunderstanding.

Well that's the gist of the opinion of one researcher, who has approached the New Sanhedrin - a fringe (or maybe not so fringe - they are headed by noted Talmud scholar Adin Steinzalts) religious group and asked them to declare West Bank Arabs to be Jews

According to Haaretz:

Four Palestinians from the Hebron Hills contacted a group of rabbis on Tuesday and claimed to be the descendants of Jews who were forced to convert to Islam.

The Palestinians were accompanied by Zvi Mesini, a researcher who wrote a book on the subject and assisted them in learning more about Judaism. According to the Palestinians, their families had removed mezuzahs from their doors in order to avoid harassment by their neighbors.

One of the Palestinians said he still kept a tefillin he received from his father's uncle and another told the rabbis that his family had once secretly lit candles on the Sabbath and for Hanukkah.

Mesini told the rabbis, members of a group called the New Sanhedrin, that he believes hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are descended from Jews.

"Such evidence renders the conflict redundant," Mesini said. "It proves that Judea and Samaria belongs to both the recognized Jews and the unrecognized Jews."

After convincing the Rabbis, he will have to convince the other 6 million or so Palestinians.

Not that he is wrong. We are all after all brothers and sisters: if not descendant from Jacob (and how many Jews are really descendant from Jacob - even Maimonides recognized that most Jews where not) than from Abraham, and if not Abraham, then from Adam. Its just that, that fact doesn't seem to move most people.

Strange Goings On In China

Truth is stranger than fiction.

So I am sitting in the train from Hefei to Shanghai (I have been in China this past week) thinking that its Shabbat and normally I would be in synagogue, so I hum some niggunim and recite Birkhot Hashachar, and a few other prayers from memory, and then I get to thinking that when I get to my Shanghai hotel I should send out an email reminder about the Talmud group I lead, and isn't all this thinking about things Jewish odd, seeing as how far away I am from any Jews or anything remotly Jewish for that matter, and then, just as we pull into Nanjing Station, I glance down at the China Daily News I have, and I see this small story.

Boost for Jewish Studies

The Institute of Jewish Studies at Nanjing University has received an initial grant of #125,000 from the Exilarch Foundation, London.

The endowment fund will be named The Naim Dangoor Fund for Universal Monotheism Studies, in honour of the philathropist Naim Dangoor [see photo above] who started the foundation.

"This gift from the Exilarch Foundation will enhance our ability to collaberate with other institutions and to train and encourage students to carry out research in Jewish studies," said Xu Xin, director of the Jewish Studies Institute.

So what's weirder? A Jewish Studies Institute at Nanjing University headed by one Xu Xin, or the fact they got a grant from a foundation named for a hereditary position - the Exilarch - that has been defunct for about 900 years, but which a quirky Iraqi Jewish millionaire living in London tried to revive. Or is it the fact that the story even made it into the China Daily. Or is it the fact that I read it when I did and actually "got" the reference to the Exilarch, since we had just been reading about him - not Naim Dangoor, but one of the original ones - in last weeks Talmud class.

* * *

(You can read more about the Excilarch (or Resha Galuta as he is referred to in the Talmud) here. And you can read more about Mr Dangoor, the would be modern Exilarch, here.)

* * *

Postscript: The next morning after I posted the above, I was walking down Shanghai's fancy shopping street, Nanjing Rd, and came upon a large non-commercial building: a low 100 year old mansion, on large grounds, behind a wall and massive rolling iron gates. There was a plaque on the wall in Chinese and English:

722 Nanjing Rd. W. Jewish Club, Designed by Lafuentes and Wotten Architects. Built 1911, brick and concrete. Renaissance Style.

So I guess I was not so far from things Jewish after all.

Yes Please! Lets "spread the wealth around."

Now as through this world I've rambled,
I've seen all kinds of men,
Some rob you with a six gun,
Some with a fountain pen.

Now as through this world I've rambled,
As through this world I've roamed,
I ain't never seen an outlaw,
drive a family from its home

- Woody Guthrie, The Ballad of Pretty Boy Floyd

Barak Obama is being accused by the American right - McCain included - of being - God forbid!! - a socialist for daring to suggest it might be good to "spread the wealth around."

It has become normal in American politics to believe that any attempt to redistribute the wealth is un-American. But wealth is always being redistributed by any change to government policy. Raise taxes or lower them, cut benefits or increase them, charge user fees or remove them, regulate monopolies more or regulate them less, enforce safety standards or remove them, subsidize agriculture or bail out the banks - it all redistributes the wealth. The only question is to whom and from whom. All changes benefits someone and disadvantages someone else. As Dylan put it: "You gotta serve somebody. I may be the devil or it may be the Lord, but ya gotta serve somebody."

And American has been serving the rich - and the super rich - since 1980 (at least.)

Here are some interesting facts and numbers.

The past 30 years have featured a massive redistribution of wealth in America from everybody else to the top one-tenth of 1 percent (that is, the richest thousandth) of Americans.

In 1979, the top 1 percent of wage earners made about 9 times as much, on average, as the bottom 90 percent of the populace. This ratio had remained virtually unchanged since the end of World War II.

At the same time the top 0.1 percent made 21 times as much as the bottom 90 percent.

Since then - and the change started with Regan's election - the income ratio of the top 1 percent relative to the bottom 90 percent has doubled, to 19 to 1.

That's bad enough, but the most radical redistribution of income has been at the very top of the economic pyramid. The top 0.1 percent now enjoys a wage ratio about 70 times that of the bottom 90 percent! A transfer of literally trillions of dollars from nine out of 10 Americans to the top 1/1000th of the population.

This has been largely a product of conscious policy changes instituted by Regan, and Bush 1 and 2; Clinton did little to reverse them: changes in the tax code, in the laws that govern labor, in trade relationships, and in a host of other ways that have moved money from everyone else to the extremely rich, as surely as Pretty Boy Floyd moved money out of Depression-era bank vaults.

So maybe it time for "Change." But redistributing the wealth won't be one of them. Merely the direction of the cash flow. Lets hope Obama wins and indeed does "spread the wealth around."

And then lets hope that this rubs off on Canada.

At least that’s hope we can hope for.

Why Can't A Muslim Be President?

Well thank God someone finally said it in public!

Colin Powell: on the campaign of lies, spread by whisper and e-mail, to convince people that Obama is a Muslim:

"Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian. He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America. Is there something wrong with some 7-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, 'He's a Muslim and might be associated with terrorists.' This is not the way we should be doing it in America."

- Meet The Press - Sunday Oct 19, 2008

The Obama campaign itself has been too chicken to make this point. They always just respond to the claim that Obama is a Muslim, by saying, "It's a lie. He's a good Christian [just like all good Americans.]"

This is just one reason I continue to be underwhelmed by Obama. He only looks so good, because the alternative is so bad.

Money Talks

"Money Talks Nobody Walks" went the old jingle for "Union Clothiers, Rte 22 Union New Jersey." Maybe money will bring peace - or at least less hatred - to the Middle East.

The lulav I bough this year came from Egypt: the etrog from Morocco.

And according to today's New York Times, the huge Swiss bank Credit Suisse has just been bailed out by parties taking significant equity positions. Parties from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel - Koor Industries in the later case.

Will the profit motive overcome all? I doubt it. But maybe it will mitigate the conflict somewhat. Is there a lesson here? Maybe that the road to peace in Israel/Palestine should go through joint economic development.

Israel /Jews / Sukkot through Chinese Eyes

This is copied, as is from, the official Chinese news site China View. The original article can be found here.

It is just plain a weird view of Israel, Jews, and Sukkot. Is this what the Chinese think Israel is like?

(And a thank-you to Eric for pointing me to this article.)

----------------------------------------------------

Israel seals off West Bank for holiday

www.chinaview.cn 2008-10-13 19:37:08

Print

Special report: Palestine-Israel Relations

JERUSALEM, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- Israeli security forces on Monday sealed off the West Bank for the upcoming Sukkot festival, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement.

The IDF said it regards the week-long holiday, which is also known as the festival of Tabernacles and starts Monday evening, as a highly sensitive time, during which it will be "on higher alert."

A member of the Samaritan sect decorates a traditional hut known as a sukkah with fruits and vegetables on Mount Gerizim, on the outskirts of the West Bank City of Nablus October 12, 2008. A sukkah is a ritual hut used during the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot which begins Monday at sundown. The Samaritans, who trace their roots to the northern Kingdom of Israel in what is now the northern West Bank, observe religious practices similar to those of Judaism. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

Till midnight Oct. 21, the West Bank will be closed, and "the passage of those in need of humanitarian and medical aid, as well as other specific requests" will be allowed with special permits, said the army.

The Jewish state routinely imposes a general closure upon the Palestinian territory during holidays and festivals, including Rosh Hashana, or the Jewish New Year's Day, two weeks ago and Yom Kippur, or the Day of Atonement, last week.

Sukkot is a festival that commemorates the 40 years Jews spent in the desert living in temporary huts in biblical times. Many Israelis build sukkahs, or huts, to live or eat in to mark the holiday.

A member of the Samaritan sect decorates a traditional hut known as a sukkah with fruits on Mount Gerizim, on the outskirts of the West Bank City of Nablus October 12, 2008. A sukkah is a ritual hut used during the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot which begins Monday at sundown. The Samaritans, who trace their roots to the northern Kingdom of Israel in what is now the northern West Bank, observe religious practices similar to those of Judaism.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

Members of the Samaritan sect parade the Torah scroll as they take part in a pilgrimage for the holy day of the Tabernacles or Sukkot, in Mount Gerizim near the West Bank town of Nablus, October 13, 2008. The Samaritan religion is an ancient form of Judaism believing in the One God of Israel, and the Torah, the first five books of the Bible. The whole community numbers about 700 people, half at Mount Gerizim and the others in Holon near Tel Aviv in Israel. Picture taken using the slow shutter speed.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

A Samaritan high priest raises the Torah scroll during a pilgrimage for the holy day of the Tabernacles or Sukkot, in Mount Gerizim near the West Bank town of Nablus, October 13, 2008. The Samaritan religion is an ancient form of Judaism believing in the One God of Israel, and the Torah, the first five books of the Bible. The whole community numbers about 700 people, half at Mount Gerizim and the others in Holon near Tel Aviv in Israel.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

An ultra-orthodox Jew checks etrogim, a citrus fruit, for blemishes in Jerusalem's Mea Shearim neighbourhood October 12, 2008. The citrus fruit is used in rituals during the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot, which begins Monday at sundown.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo) Photo Gallery>>>

Ultra-orthodox Jews check etrogim, a citrus fruit, for blemishes in Jerusalem's Mea Shearim neighbourhood October 12, 2008. The citrus fruit is used in rituals during the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot, which begins Monday at sundown.(Xinhua/Reuters Photo)

Deficit Now!

One of the (many) negative results of the Conservatives returning to power in Canada is that they are committed to reducing debt and avoiding deficits at all costs.

But that is not what is called for in the coming year or two. The real economy is slowing down, demand is falling, and with it will go jobs, thus decreasing demand, thus ...

What is needed is a fiscal stimulous. The government needs to spend money to create demand and jobs. When good times return, we can go back to paying down the debt and saving.

The point is well made in this article in the New York Times, by the recent Nobel Prize winner for economic - Paul Krugman.

While the manic-depressive stock market is dominating the headlines, the more important story is the grim news coming in about the real economy. It’s now clear that rescuing the banks is just the beginning: the nonfinancial economy is also in desperate need of help.

And to provide that help, we’re going to have to put some prejudices aside. It’s politically fashionable to rant against government spending and demand fiscal responsibility. But right now, increased government spending is just what the doctor ordered, and concerns about the budget deficit should be put on hold.

Before I get there, let’s talk about the economic situation.

Just this week, we learned that retail sales have fallen off a cliff, and so has industrial production. ... All signs point to an economic slump that will be nasty, brutish — and long.

How nasty? ..this [will be] the worst recession in a quarter-century.

And how long? It could be very long indeed.

... Even if the ongoing efforts to rescue the banking system and unfreeze the credit markets work — and while it’s early days yet, the initial results have been disappointing — it’s hard to see housing making a comeback any time soon. ...

In other words, there’s not much Ben Bernanke can do for the economy. He can and should cut interest rates even more — but nobody expects this to do more than provide a slight economic boost.

On the other hand, there’s a lot the federal government can do for the economy. It can provide extended benefits to the unemployed, which will both help distressed families cope and put money in the hands of people likely to spend it. It can provide emergency aid to state and local governments, so that they aren’t forced into steep spending cuts that both degrade public services and destroy jobs. ...

And this is also a good time to engage in some serious infrastructure spending, which the country badly needs in any case. The usual argument against public works as economic stimulus is that they take too long: by the time you get around to repairing that bridge and upgrading that rail line, the slump is over and the stimulus isn’t needed. Well, that argument has no force now, since the chances that this slump will be over anytime soon are virtually nil. So let’s get those projects rolling.

... What we need right now is more government spending.

... The responsible thing, right now, is to give the economy the help it needs. Now is not the time to worry about the deficit.

Canada is even better able to implement this advice than the U.S. Canada has spent the past 15 years with no deficits, and has consistently paid down its debt. We have paid the price for all this "fiscal prudence" in crumbling infrastructure, reduced services, poor health care and increased provincial and local taxes. Now is time to reap some of the rewards of all that "saving for rainy day." It is raining hard, and it looks like a long downpour. Time to spend some money on umbrellas.

But I doubt the Conservatives will be open to that approach. They are addicted to small government and worship "balanced budgets" at all costs. Let's hope they loosen up a bit.

Thoughts on the Canadian Elections

Here are seven of my thoughts on Tuesday's Canadian election results.

1) I am disappointed that the Conservatives did as well as they did, and that the NDP and the Greens did not do better.

2) It could have been worse.

3) More than a Conservative win, this was a Liberal loss.

The liberals are now reduced to the party of Canada's big cities - or maybe just Toronto! Out of 76 Liberal seats, 32 are in the GTA - that 43% of their seats!, 12 more are in Montreal, 4 in Vancouver, two in Halifax and two in Ottawa That's 52 out of 76, or 75%. The other seats are scattered around Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals are now, more than ever, a party of the "east". They got 1 seat in Manitoba (of 14), 1 seat in Saskatchewan (of 14), zero seats in Alberta (of 28), and only 5 in B.C. (out of 36). In the western half of the country the standings now are: Conservatives: 71, NDP 14, Liberals 7. In the west, the Liberals are now the third party "also rans". In every western province the NDP got more of the popular vote than the Liberals - by 5 - 10%!

4) On the other hand, even with such a lousy Liberal showing the Conservatives only increased their popular vote by 1.3%, and only have support of 37% of the people who voted. And because it was the lowest turn out ever in Canadian history, the Conservatives actually got less votes this election than they did in 2006! It is hard to call this a strong Conservative trend - despite their big increase in seats. One might conclude that many disillusioned Liberals simply stayed home rather than vote Conservative (or NDP or Green for that matter.)

5) The NDP and Greens failed to make their anticipated big break-through. The NDP gained 22% in seats but only increased its popular vote by 6%. It still got only 18.6% overall. The Greens disappointed even more, getting only 6.8% of the vote and zero seats (despite having polled as high as 12% at one time.) Part of the reason for this is structural (see below), and part is that many Canadians really are "risk averse" and very cautious of trying anything new.

6) The Canadian electoral system is broken. If the seats allocation actually reflected the popular vote, the standings would be Conservatives 117, Liberals 82, NDP 57, BQ 31, and Greens 21. The actual result was Conservatives 143, Liberals 76, BQ 50, NDP 37, Greens 0. Instead of facing a Conservative minority government, we would be having a majority coalition government of Liberals, NDP, and Greens.

The unfairness of the current system is even more apparent on the provincial scale. In Newfoundland the NDP got 33% of the vote and only 1 seat(out of 7.) In Saskatchewan they got zero seats, despite getting a quarter of the votes.

In addition riding sizes are configured to disadvantage urban areas, which vote more "progressively", and to the advantage rural and small town areas that vote more conservatively. 5.2 million Conservative votes resulted in 142 seats: that's about 36,000 votes per seat. At the same time the Liberals needs 47,000 votes to get a seat, the NDP needed nearly 68,000 to get a seat, and the almost 1 million votes the Green Party got resulted in zero seats!

No wonder the NDP and the Greens did so much worse than the polls predicted. People either despaired and stayed home, or held their nose and voted "strategically" for their second or third choice. No wonder this was that lowest turn out ever in Canadian history. A "first past the post" system cannot work, with five viable parties. The people are not fools. The system is unfair and undemocratic and many votes simply don't count. The people sense this, and vote with their feet.

Let hope that somehow someday this changes.

7) I kept my perfect voting record! I have never yet voted for a winning candidate in a Canadian election.

Yoreh - First Rain

I know this is lazy, but I just liked this article from the JTA so much that I had to share.

Despite my deep criticism of many Israeli policies, and my total opposition to the occupation, I have an abiding love of the land, the people, the weather, and how it all ties in with Jewish history and religion.

The fact that this article was written by a settler in the West Bank doesn't remove the beauty of what she decribes. (But is does affect why I don't live in Israel anymore.)

* * *

By Marcy Oster Published: 10/07/2008


Rain is a precious commodity in Israel.

That said, there are some facts about rain that everyone here seems to know and that we learned pretty quickly after we made aliyah eight years ago.

For starters, you can leave everything outside during the summer months -- laundry, bicycles, furniture, grill. It does not rain in the summer. Ever.

The first rain will hit sometime during the High Holidays. It doesn't matter if the holidays are early or late, it will rain sometime, often during Sukkot. The corollary to this is that it is impossible to find umbrellas, rain boots or raincoats in the stores until after the first rain.

The last rain will hit right around Passover, usually on seder night.

I never realized how quickly we fell into the rhythm of the yearly rain cycle until I took my children back to Cleveland for a summer visit about two years after we made aliyah.

As we walked from the airport terminal into the parking garage, we saw a steady stream of rain pouring down.
"Oh no, Ima," said my son, who was 4 at the time, "we forgot to bring our winter clothes."

To him, rain signified winter and cold. He could not conceive of rain in the summer.

Rain is so important to Israel, and therefore Judaism, that there are special words for the first and last rainfall of the year: "Yoreh u malkosh." Yoreh is the first rain of the season, and malkosh is the last. We recite these words every day in the Shema prayer.

Jews around the world pray for rain for Israel. The end of Sukkot features a special prayer service for rain. It can get a little tricky, asking for enough rain, or a rain of blessing, but not too much rain that would cause damaging floods and mudslides. It is a moving prayer, especially in drought years like the ones we have faced lately in Israel.

We also pray for dew because even when the rains have ceased, the small amounts of moisture that coat the land in the early morning might be enough to sustain some of our plant life and give us hope for the future. And we recite short summaries of our prayers for rain and dew during the Shemonah Esrai,or the silent Amidah, that we say three times a day.

The Yoreh caught us by surprise this year. Yes, the mornings had been a little cooler and a little overcast during the week. But with Rosh Hashanah right around the corner and thinking about little else than the food I was preparing for a myriad of guests, I missed the signals completely.

But on the Shabbat before Rosh Hashanah, as I sat around the table with my husband and five children, and we contemplated getting up and clearing the table for dessert, suddenly the lights went out.

Losing power where we live is not unusual, but as we sat there relieved that we could put off clearing the table for another few moments, a cold breeze began blowing through the open door and windows.

Then came a sound that we had not heard in five months: Rain was pattering on our roof and the roofs of our neighbors. Almost in unison my children, aged 4 to 14, let out a whoop and ran outside. From the door my husband and I watched them standing on the brick lane as they opened their arms and turned their faces toward the sky, letting the rain soak them all over.


Watching the kids' joyful dance in the first rain of the year, I didn't bother to think about the grill and the hammock and the bicycles that were getting a good soaking. And I forgave them for the wet mess of clothing and muddy feet that they would soon track into the house.


I felt their enthusiasm course through me as I watched them frolic. I silently thanked God for the refreshing and much-needed rain. And I marveled at my children's awareness of the importance of the moment.

Political Fashion

I knew many American Orthodox Jews where sympathetic to the Republicans because they viewed them as strong defenders of Israel. But this is ridiculous.

According to www.sheitel.com the new Sarah Palin Sheitel is a best seller. I would have thought, that if nothing else, her religious views would have made Palin treif as a role model for Orthodox Jewish women. But I guess all is fair in the pursuit of beauty.

Yom Kippur Greeting

I got this email greeting. I guess it arrived erev YK, but I just saw it today.

Just thought I would share.

Yom Kippur Address 5769

Below is the text of a talk I gave today - Yom Kippur - at my synagogue. The talk preceded the reading of the Haphtarah.

Social Justice Advocacy Address
Congregation Darchei Noam, Yom Kippur 5769, Oct 9th 2008

I’ve been asked to speak today on behalf of the Social Justice Advocacy Committee. It is appropriate to convey a message of social justice today, since the call for social justice and the concern for the less fortunate is central to our traditional Yom Kippur haphtarah text. And the haphtarah speaks to us in language meant to unsettle & disturb.

* * *

Why are you fasting here today ?

Do you really think that fasting will save your soul?

Why are you praying here today, … and wailing and beating your breasts?

Do you think that will improve your lives? Will words and posturing make you better people?

There are hungry people in this city! There are people with no homes. There are people who can’t provide for their children.

If we ignore their plight, none of this fasting and praying and wailing and gnashing of teeth will matter one whit. God will not save us! He will abandon us, as we have abandoned the needy.

* * *

Did you find these words harsh or inappropriate?

They are not my words. They are merely a summary of the words of our prophet Isaiah. Words that our sages included in our Yom Kippur Liturgy – see page 569 in the Kol Hanshama if you don’t believe me.

And our sages put these words here precisely to shock us, and to remind us of what true tshuvah is all about: To recommit to our neighbours’ welfare; To remind us that we find God, not only or even primarily through ritual, but through our Godly response to other people; To remind us that Tzeddakah – Social Justice – is a key element of our own personal salvation – however we understand that term.

* * *

Canada likes to pride itself on its social responsibility. But that is a lie!

In Ontario today 15% of the population – about 1.8 million people – live below the poverty line. This includes over 1 in six of our children!

In Toronto today nearly 1 in 4 people are living below the poverty line: a Quarter Million people in Toronto live on very low income - with household incomes of less than $20,000 a year! There are 150,000 people on the brink of homelessness. There are 70,000 people on waiting lists for affordable housing and the wait time is now over 6 years! Many of these poor are seniors, or disabled. Many are in single parent families. And these difficult conditions affect the Jewish community too. In the Toronto 20,000 Jews live below the poverty line – that’s 1 out of every 8!

At the same time welfare and disability pensions in Ontario have fallen in real terms, so that they are about half of what they were 15 years ago. The minimum wage has failed to keep up with inflation. Shamefully Canada spends less of its GDP on social programs then France, Germany, Sweden, the UK, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Norway, and even the United States.

* * *

What can we do about this? For years many Darchei Noam members have worked in Out or the Cold and similar relief projects. Recently many of us have become convinced that relief, while necessary, is not enough. Relief gets the most needy through the day, but it does not solve the problem of poverty.

The solutions to poverty are structural and systemic. Only government can muster the resources and initiate the systemic changes that can end poverty. Therefore, we have formed the Social Justice Advocacy Committee - committed to advocating for larger changes that can make a serious dent in poverty. We have begun lobbying politicians, and recently we organized an open letter from 18 Synagogues urging the McGuinty government to do more to combat poverty in Ontario. We are told that Darchei Noam is playing a leading role in uniting the Jewish Community to advocate against poverty. But to be effective you must be part of these advocacy efforts too.

If a politician knocks on your door, ask them what they and their party are planning to do about -

· creating more affordable housing for poor families;
· or about a creating a decent minimum wage for the person who cleans up your office at night or who serves your meal when you go to a restaurant;
· or about creating decent income supports for those who cannot work: the disabled, or those not able to find or hold a job.

Ask them if they are committed to creating a plan for ending poverty, one with clear targets and with regular reporting and public monitoring.

And if a politician does not knock on your door, then go to a meeting, write a letter, sign a petition. And not just in the run up to the federal election, but all through the year with federal, provincial, and municipal politicians.

Poverty can be beaten! Tony Blair’s England made a committed to reduce poverty by 25% in 5 years, and they virtually achieve the goal. In Canada, both Quebec and Newfoundland have social policies that put Ontario to shame. We can do as well, or better, than those jurisdictions.

But we need political will. And only you can help create that political will! Politicians, sympathetic to a social justice agenda, have told us that they are afraid to promote social programs, lest they be labeled as naive or fiscally irresponsible or in favour of taxes. Since when was tax relief become the be all and end all of our public policy! It was not always so.

Why are politicians more afraid of the anti tax lobby than social justice lobby? Judaism demands that we spend significant amounts of money on social justice, and we must demand nothing less from our governments and politicians. Only by making these demands loudly can we hope to make a dent in the scourge of poverty. In Isaiah’s words: “Cry from the throat, do not relent, raise up your voices like a shofar.”

Demand that the right and moral thing be done.

* * *

If you want to learn more, or to join our committee, please feel free to talk to me or any other member of the Social Justice Advocacy Committee (many of us have these tags on) or contact Myer Siemiatycki or Amy Block the co-chairs of the committee. Also there is literature on the table near the baby sitting room on the upper level. Or you can go back and re-read our article in the most recent issue of Ner Noam.

* * *

Whatever you do, don’t do nothing. Yom Kippur demands that we promote tikkun olam – repair of the world – as much as tikkun ha nefesh – repair of the soul.

In the words of today’s Haftarah:

… this is the ‘fast’ that I desire:
…
To let the oppressed go free;
And to break off every yoke;
To give bread to the hungry,
And to house the lowly poor;
When you see the naked, clothe him,
And do not, do not ignore your brother.

… Thus if you offer compassion to the hungry,
And satisfy the famished;

Then shall your light shine in the darkness,
And your gloom shall become
As the noon-day sun,
And the Lord will guide you always.”

Gmar chatima tova

No Comment

I have no idea if this is real or photo-shopped, but the person who sent it to the person who sent it to the person who sent it to me, claims their cousin took it, and its real.

If any one knows more let me know.

Purity of Arms - RIP

Tahart HaNeshek - 'Purity of Arms' - is a phrase used in the Israel to depict the morality of the Israel Defense Forces. It defines the rules of engagement that tell Israeli soldiers they may not kill of brutalize "enemy non-combatants" (i.e. civilians.) The IDF used to be very proud of its taharat ha neshek. It distinguishes "us" from "them". They target civilians - we never do. They shoot prisoners and ignore the Geneva conventions - we never do.

One of the shameful tragedies of the second Israel - Lebanon War was the IDF's massive use of cluster bombs. Cluster bombs explode about 100 meters above the ground, and scatter hundreds of smaller 'bomblets' around a large area. These, in turn, explode - or are supposed to explode - on contact with the ground. It is the 'bomblets' that do the intended killing. Cluster bombs are designed to be used against personnel - when you "don't have an exact target". They kill or maim anyone vaguely close to the target. With cluster bombs, "collateral damage" is a known and planned effect. But not only are cluster bombs designed to kill anyone within several hundred meters of the "target", they leave a deadly legacy - not dissimilar to land mines - that kill and maim civilians for months and even years after the war is over. The U.N. has estimated that there were over 1 million (that's not a typo!) unexploded cluster 'bomblets' left scattered around southern Lebanon after the last war: just waiting for a child to kick one, or pick one up, or an unsuspecting adult to accidentally step on one.

There is a growing chorus of countries demanding that cluster bombs be banned. Over 100 countries, so far, have agreed to banning them. America, Russia, China, and Israel have refused. (Oh, how proud we are to be among the "Big Boys"!)

But Israel has not done nothing. It has built a better cluster bomb! - to salve its conscience perhaps, as well as to be more effective in the initial blast. According to this story from Reuters, the new Israeli manufactured cluster bomb leaves only 10% of its 'bomblets' on-exploded: as opposed to about 35% in the American made munitions Israel has been using until now. So that means only 300,000 unexploded bomblets next time around. Praise the Lord!

Is this the tshuvah Israel is doing for the excesses of the second Lebanon War? If so we better hope God has lowered his standards. To quote Isaiah from the Yom Kippur Haftatah: "Is this the fast I require?"

* * *

As if to underscore it's now complete abandonment of the concept of taharat ha neshek, - civilians and civilian infrastructure are now declared legitimate targets of the IDF.

A recent interview with the IDF's GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot, as well articles written by two senior reserve officers, emphasize that the next Lebanon war will be just like the last - only more so. The IDF will increase its "firepower" and target Lebanese civilians. The details can be found in this article from Haaretz. Some typical quotes:

Eisenkot presented his "Dahiyah Doctrine," under which the IDF would expand its destructive power beyond what it demonstrated two years ago against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyah, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.

...

"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. ... This isn't a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized."

...

"[The IDF will deal] a disproportionate strike at the heart of the enemy's weak spot, in which efforts to hurt launch capability are secondary. ...

"This strike has to be carried out as quickly as possible, through prioritizing strikes at its assets, rather than chasing after launch sites.

...

Israel [should] pass a clear message to the Lebanese government, as soon as possible, stating that in the next war, the Lebanese army will be destroyed, as will the civilian infrastructure.

"People won't be going to the beach in Beirut while Haifa residents are in shelters,"

...

While Eisenkot and Siboni deal primarily with striking Shi'ite strongholds, Eiland sees Lebanon's infrastructure as a primary target, in a plan highly reminiscent of the one proposed by then-IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz, which was eventually shot down by U.S. opposition.

...

What the three officials have in common, surprisingly, is their emphasis on air power. Anyone who thinks the Air Force will step aside given the results of the last Lebanon war will likely be proven wrong.

* * *

Can anyone stop this madness? Whatever happened to:

"When you shall besiege a city a long time, in making war against it to take it, you shall not destroy its trees by forcing an ax against them" (Deut 20:19)

or

"Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, says the Lord of hosts." (Zezhariah 4:6)

or just the official IDF doctrine (though poorly enforced) of the 40's, 50s, and 60s?

Dueling Jews

Two Jews, three opinions.

Here two American Jewish comedians give their views on the American Elections. It should be pretty obvious which one I prefer. But I gotta give marks to both for sheer chutzpah.

Below is Sarah Silverman shucking for Obama.



and in response, we have this Jackie Mason for pulling for McCain



Now in order to break the tie, I am invoking Edward Bronfman American Jewish billionaire, philanthropist and general "Macher" as quoted in today's New York Times Magazine:

Question: Are you a Democrat?

Answer: That depends on who the Republican candidate is. I'm a Democrat now. I'd vote for Mickey Mouse before I'd vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.

* * *

In the last U.S. presidential election, American Jews votes 75% for the Democrats. That was low by historical standards, but still the second highest tilt towards Democrats of any measurable ethnic or religious group. (89% of blacks voted Democratic.)