Just So We Don't Lose Track

Just so we don't lose track by the next time Gaza heats up enough to make it into the main stream media,  here is a list of 15 ceasefire violations committed by Israel forces since the Nov 21 ceasefire.

11/22/2012

"Israeli forces shot and injured a Palestinian man east of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip late Thursday after he approached a fence on the border, medics said." (Read more)

11/25/2012

“Israeli forces opened fire at a group of Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, lightly injuring one man, a Gaza medical official said.” (Read more)

11/26/2012

“Two people were shot by Israeli forces east of Rafah on Monday, a health ministry spokesman said, in the second consecutive day of shooting along Gaza's border.” (Read more)

11/28/2012

“Israeli forces detained nine fishermen off Gaza's north coast on Wednesday, a local official said. As part of a ceasefire to end Israel's recent eight-day war on Gaza, Israel agreed to allow fishermen to sail six nautical miles off the coast of Gaza instead of three, which had been the limit under Israel's siege” (Read more)

11/29/2012

“Israeli military vehicles crossed near the al-Qarara town northeast of Khan Younis on Thursday in a new breach of the Gaza ceasefire, a Ma’an reporter said.” (Read more)

“On Wednesday Israeli forces shot and injured seven Palestinians near the border in the central Gaza Strip, medics said. Seven people were shot at east of al-Maghazi and al-Bureij refugee camps and transferred to the al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. One man sustained serious injuries, medical officials told Ma'an.” (Read more)

"Earlier, 27-year-old Hassan Ahmad Nseir was shot by Israeli forces near Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip while collecting iron and gravel, medics told Ma'an." (Read more)

11/30/2012

“On Friday, 11 Palestinians sustained wounds by Israeli fire along the borders between the Gaza Strip and Israel." (Read more) 

12/01/2012

“The Israeli navy on Saturday stopped 13 Palestinian fishermen and detained them off the coast, a Gaza official said." (Read more)  

12/02/2012

“An unexplained explosion in the central Gaza Strip injured three people on Sunday morning, a medical official said.” (Read more)  

“A young Palestinian man died late Friday of wounds he sustained hours earlier by Israeli gunfire east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.” (Read more)  

12/03/2012

"Israeli soldiers shot and injured a Palestinian teenager on Monday near a border fence area of central Gaza, medics said." (Read more)

12/10/2012

"Witnesses said Israeli military vehicles crossed the border into the Gaza Strip near Khan Younis on Monday morning." (Read more)

12/14/2012

"A young Palestinian man was shot and injured Friday evening by Israeli soldiers east of Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip, medical officials said." (Read more)

12/16/2012

"A Palestinian man was shot in the chest by Israeli forces near the Gaza border on Sunday, witnesses said." (Read more)

12/17/2012

"Israeli naval forces shot and wounded a Palestinian fisherman in waters off the northern Gaza Strip on Monday, sources on both sides said." (Read more)

12/18/2012

"On Tuesday morning, a number of Israeli military vehicles invaded the eastern part of Khan Younis to the south of the Gaza Strip." (Read more)

12/21/2012

"Israeli forces shot and injured five Palestinians on Friday in the northern Gaza Strip, a health ministry spokesman said. Ashraf al-Qidra said five Palestinians were hospitalized with moderate wounds after being shot near the border with Israel. " (Read more)

(source: here)

While Gazan's Celebrate A Real Victory, Israel Violates Ceases Fire

Gaza "buffer zone" with border fence in the distance

While Gazans returned to land to which they had long been denied access, Israeli troops fired across the border, killing one Palestinian. Other than 12 Palestinian rockets attacks that occurred within 30 minutes of the formal Wednesday 9:00 PM cease fire, this is the first violation of the ceasefire and comes after more than 24 hours of quiet.

According to the New York Times:

A group of Palestinians went to Abassan, a border area east of the southern town of Khan Younis, on Friday to pray on their land, and ended up throwing stones at soldiers, who responded with gunfire. … 

Capt. Eytan Buchman, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said that about 300 Palestinians were demonstrating at various points along the border fence on Friday, prompting Israeli soldiers to fire warning shots in the air. Then some demonstrators “tried to damage the fence and cross into Israel,” Captain Buchman said. “When that happened, the forces fired at their feet.” … 

Witnesses and Hamas police officers said the shooting Friday happened near the spot where a missile fired by Palestinian militants injured three Israeli soldiers in a jeep stationed along the border fence earlier this month. 

They said that as many as 2,000 people had flocked to the area on Thursday in celebration of the cease-fire, and that hundreds returned Friday morning. Many of them had not been that close to the border in a decade or more: it was considered too dangerous at least since the onset of the second Palestinian uprising in 2000, and became officially off limits starting in 2008. 

An Israeli government official said on Friday that, as part of the latest cease-fire understandings, Israel agreed to discuss the buffer zone with the Egyptian sponsors of the truce. But, the official added, no negotiations have taken place yet. For now, the official said, Israel’s regulations for maintaining the zone and the army’s rules of engagement remain unchanged. 

A Palestinian who approached the security fence on Friday, Eyad Qudaih, 38, said he had not visited his modest farm measuring around 1.7 acres close to the fence in the 12 years he had lived in one of the few scattered houses in the buffer zone. The feeling of standing on his land, he said, “was like someone who is hungry and had a big meal, grilled sheep with nuts.” 

Someone planted a green Hamas flag on a long pole atop the fence, and a smaller Palestinian one nearby, unimaginable sights only a few days ago. Some Palestinians talked to Israeli soldiers through the fence, according to witnesses and photographs posted on the Internet. 

But around 11 a.m., shooting broke out, according two witness — Eyad Qudaih, a cousin of the man who was killed, and another family member, Samih Qudaih. They said the bullets came from an Israeli watchtower and a jeep, and that there had been no stone-throwing to provoke them.

The celebrations and the subsequent shooting highlight one of the lesser known but more significant ways that Israel has made life miserable for Gazan’s over the last five years (and perhaps longer.) In 2008, Israel officially – and unilaterally – declared a 300 metre buffer zone long the border fence between Gaza and Israel. (In reality Israel often enforces the zone to much greater depth.) Of course, the buffer zone was entirely on the Gazan side of the fence. It was to be a no-go zone. Any Palestinian in the buffer zone could be and, not so rarely, was shot. People who where unlucky enough to live or farm land in the zone where simply out of luck.

How much land are we talking about? Officially 15.9 square kilometres, or 4.4% of the land base of Gaza: almost all of it agricultural land. In a tiny, over crowed territory that cannot produce enough food to feed itself, this is socially and economically significant, over and above the psychological and financial losses of the families affected. This is the size of the official buffer zone. The defacto buffer zone was probably 60% larger (500 meters deep, 26.5 square kilometers, 7.25% of the Gaza land base.)

One of the clauses of Wednesday’s cease fire agreement was that Israel would ease restrictions on Palestinians' access to these lands. Many Gazans took them at their word. One paid with his life.

* * *

Update:  The Jerusalem Post has an article about the same incident. The headline reads: "Hamas polices Gaza border after IDF fire kills man by fence: IDF says group of Palestinians tried to breach border"  Below is the picture that accompanied the article.

Was It Worth It?

This is what 8 days of fighting, and approximately 170 dead, 1000 wounded, $100 million in munitions, and untold millions of economic damage will get you.

Agreement of Understanding For a Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip 

1:

A. Israel should stop all hostilities in the Gaza Strip land, sea and air including incursions and targeting of individuals. 

B. All Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel including rocket attacks and all attacks along the border. 

C. Opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods and refraining from restricting residents' free movements and targeting residents in border areas and procedures of implementation shall be dealt with after 24 hours from the start of the ceasefire 

D. Other matters as may be requested shall be addressed.

2: Implementation mechanisms:

A. Setting up the zero hour for the ceasefire understanding to enter into effect. 

B. Egypt shall receive assurances from each party that the party commits to what was agreed upon. 

C. Each party shall commit itself not to perform any acts that would breach this understanding. In case of any observations Egypt as the sponsor of this understanding shall be informed to follow up.

In the year prior to Nov 13, (the start of this latest war), though 700 rockets had been launched from Gaza to Israel, not  a single Israeli had been killed and only one had been wounded. In the eight days of the war, 6 Israelis were killed and many dozens wounded.

Do you suppose, that if on November 13, the Israeli government had proposed to Hamas that in exchange for a total cessation of rocket fire from Gaza, Israel would being "opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods" that Hamas would have agreed?  I'm pretty sure they would have.  It certainly would  have been worth a try. It might have saved 6 Israeli lives, dozens of Israeli wounded, millions of Israeli dollars, and avoided a lot of trauma for Israeli citizens. (And I am deliberately not mentioning the wars effects on Palestinians.)

So, even from the narrowly defined perspective of "Israeli rational self interest", was this war worth it?

Three Reactions

Following Tuesday's bus bombing in Tel-Aviv, the Jerusalem Post records three reactions from bystanders. They sort of sum up the options.

1. Why can't we all just get along.

At the scene of the bombing on Wednesday, a young Palestinian couple from Qalqilyah walked their daughter away from the bombing, and made their way to the bus station after they had taken their daughter for treatment at Ichilov Hospital around the corner.
As his daughter cried and he tried to calm her fears, father Bader Badir expressed a desire for quiet on both sides, and expressed his opposition to violence against civilians, both in Gaza and in Israel.

2. Bomb them into submission.

Paramedic Israel Kornik said at the site of the bombing “if this is happening while we're talking about a cease-fire why stop? We can't stop, the IDF must keep working until they finish the job.”

3. Negotiate an Agreement

Haim Shefer, 62, said he was at his house about 100 meters from the explosion ...
When asked if he thinks the era of terror attacks could be making a return, he said “I don't think so, they're trying to get us here to show that if we hit them they'll hit us. But we cant win by force and neither can we,” Shefer said, adding “I'm against a ground invasion, it's time for both sides to sit down and talk.”

What Do Most Israelis Expect?

A poll in today's Jersualem Post says that "85 percent of Israelis" believe that it was right of Israel to embark on the "Operation Pillar of Cloud."  (I have to believe that this percentage, and the others below, are of Israeli Jews not all Israelis. Twenty-five percent of Israelis are non-Jews, and I have to believe that a vast majority of them are against this operation. The fact that the Jerusalem Post can so easily say "Israelis" when then mean "Israeli Jews" is itself a large part of the problem.)

But when asked what should happen next, 45% said to continue air strikes, 22% said to seek a cease fire, and just 25% recommended a ground offensive. (Presumably 8% had no opinion.).

I understand the 22% who want to seek a ceasefire. Most of these people, no doubt, are a part of the 15% who did not  think the operation was a good idea in the first place.

What I don't understand is: what do the 70% who want this to continue want? Do they believe that Israel can crush Hamas completely and unilaterally, with no agreement of any sort?  Are they against agreements because they don't want to restrict Israel's freedom of action in the future? Or are they simply against offering Hamas any carrots (easing of the blockade  perhaps)? Or are they just intent on maximum punishment and revenge? Are they willing to risk more Israelis casualties - both civilian and military - in order achieve these "goals"? - not to mention Israel's international support, and increased hatred on the part of Palestinians.

I think the answer is simply that people don't think clearly in situations like these. These answers are from the gut, not the brain. We see similar reactions on the Palestinian side.

The good news, I suppose, is that 15 percent think this whole operation was and is a bad idea. If I am right that this is 15% of Israeli Jews, and if we can assume that virtually all of Israel's non-Jews are against this operation, than that means that 35-40% of all Israelis are against it.