Was It Worth It?

This is what 8 days of fighting, and approximately 170 dead, 1000 wounded, $100 million in munitions, and untold millions of economic damage will get you.

Agreement of Understanding For a Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip 

1:

A. Israel should stop all hostilities in the Gaza Strip land, sea and air including incursions and targeting of individuals. 

B. All Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel including rocket attacks and all attacks along the border. 

C. Opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods and refraining from restricting residents' free movements and targeting residents in border areas and procedures of implementation shall be dealt with after 24 hours from the start of the ceasefire 

D. Other matters as may be requested shall be addressed.

2: Implementation mechanisms:

A. Setting up the zero hour for the ceasefire understanding to enter into effect. 

B. Egypt shall receive assurances from each party that the party commits to what was agreed upon. 

C. Each party shall commit itself not to perform any acts that would breach this understanding. In case of any observations Egypt as the sponsor of this understanding shall be informed to follow up.

In the year prior to Nov 13, (the start of this latest war), though 700 rockets had been launched from Gaza to Israel, not  a single Israeli had been killed and only one had been wounded. In the eight days of the war, 6 Israelis were killed and many dozens wounded.

Do you suppose, that if on November 13, the Israeli government had proposed to Hamas that in exchange for a total cessation of rocket fire from Gaza, Israel would being "opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods" that Hamas would have agreed?  I'm pretty sure they would have.  It certainly would  have been worth a try. It might have saved 6 Israeli lives, dozens of Israeli wounded, millions of Israeli dollars, and avoided a lot of trauma for Israeli citizens. (And I am deliberately not mentioning the wars effects on Palestinians.)

So, even from the narrowly defined perspective of "Israeli rational self interest", was this war worth it?

Three Reactions

Following Tuesday's bus bombing in Tel-Aviv, the Jerusalem Post records three reactions from bystanders. They sort of sum up the options.

1. Why can't we all just get along.

At the scene of the bombing on Wednesday, a young Palestinian couple from Qalqilyah walked their daughter away from the bombing, and made their way to the bus station after they had taken their daughter for treatment at Ichilov Hospital around the corner.
As his daughter cried and he tried to calm her fears, father Bader Badir expressed a desire for quiet on both sides, and expressed his opposition to violence against civilians, both in Gaza and in Israel.

2. Bomb them into submission.

Paramedic Israel Kornik said at the site of the bombing “if this is happening while we're talking about a cease-fire why stop? We can't stop, the IDF must keep working until they finish the job.”

3. Negotiate an Agreement

Haim Shefer, 62, said he was at his house about 100 meters from the explosion ...
When asked if he thinks the era of terror attacks could be making a return, he said “I don't think so, they're trying to get us here to show that if we hit them they'll hit us. But we cant win by force and neither can we,” Shefer said, adding “I'm against a ground invasion, it's time for both sides to sit down and talk.”

What Do Most Israelis Expect?

A poll in today's Jersualem Post says that "85 percent of Israelis" believe that it was right of Israel to embark on the "Operation Pillar of Cloud."  (I have to believe that this percentage, and the others below, are of Israeli Jews not all Israelis. Twenty-five percent of Israelis are non-Jews, and I have to believe that a vast majority of them are against this operation. The fact that the Jerusalem Post can so easily say "Israelis" when then mean "Israeli Jews" is itself a large part of the problem.)

But when asked what should happen next, 45% said to continue air strikes, 22% said to seek a cease fire, and just 25% recommended a ground offensive. (Presumably 8% had no opinion.).

I understand the 22% who want to seek a ceasefire. Most of these people, no doubt, are a part of the 15% who did not  think the operation was a good idea in the first place.

What I don't understand is: what do the 70% who want this to continue want? Do they believe that Israel can crush Hamas completely and unilaterally, with no agreement of any sort?  Are they against agreements because they don't want to restrict Israel's freedom of action in the future? Or are they simply against offering Hamas any carrots (easing of the blockade  perhaps)? Or are they just intent on maximum punishment and revenge? Are they willing to risk more Israelis casualties - both civilian and military - in order achieve these "goals"? - not to mention Israel's international support, and increased hatred on the part of Palestinians.

I think the answer is simply that people don't think clearly in situations like these. These answers are from the gut, not the brain. We see similar reactions on the Palestinian side.

The good news, I suppose, is that 15 percent think this whole operation was and is a bad idea. If I am right that this is 15% of Israeli Jews, and if we can assume that virtually all of Israel's non-Jews are against this operation, than that means that 35-40% of all Israelis are against it.